hexcast.
RESEARCH

Coordination Collapse Cuts Ethereum Validator Margin to Single Digits

Oracle design broken by two proofs. Ethereum's ~60% correlation among top 3 validators drops effective honest margin to single digits, not 33%. Weighted BFT with diversity weighting cuts their power to 15.7%. Always-publish oracles lose; structured silence, withholding under low coherence, dominates. Backtests on 30 exploits, $3.315B lost, confirm silence's edge.

ETHRESEAR.CH · AUG 10